The week ahead in numbers: Inflation trajectory, export growth, NSE IPO

August inflation will be among the week’s key economic data releases. (Image: Pixabay)SummaryA look at the key economic data, policy decisions and market events that could shape the week ahead.Gift this articleCheck your portfolioThis is a Mint Premium article gifted to you.Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.

Every week, Mint’s Plain Facts section tracks the key data releases and announcements to watch in the coming week.

India’s August inflation data is due this week, while the Reserve Bank of India is set to conduct open-market bond sales amid a large liquidity surplus in the banking system. The US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will take monetary-policy decisions, while India’s August trade data will offer a fresh reading on export growth.

India's primary market will also remain busy, with the much-awaited initial public offering (IPO) of the National Stock Exchange Ltd (NSE) opening for subscription alongside issues from other companies.

Here are the key developments to watch over the next seven days:

August inflation will be among the week’s key economic data releases, with both consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) figures due on 14 September. Weak and uneven rainfall and higher fuel prices are expected to keep food prices elevated. Food inflation rose to 5.5% in July from 5.2% in June, with the increase broadening across individual items. A Mint analysis showed that the number of CPI items recording higher inflation rose to 238 in July from 228 in June, while those recording lower inflation fell to 108 from 115.

Among food items, ginger inflation rose to 83.6% in July from 50.4% in June, while garlic inflation jumped to 35.4% from 17.9%. Onion inflation also rose sharply, to 22.5% from 4.7%. Core inflation stood at 4% in July, while transport inflation was 4.4%. With Brent crude above $100 a barrel, the August data will show whether higher food and fuel costs are spreading to a wider set of prices.

India’s August trade data is due this week against a backdrop of major shifts in global fuel trade. Merchandise exports have grown strongly in the first four months of FY27, but the composition of that growth has varied across months.

Petroleum products have been a major contributor: their exports rose 67.6% year-on-year to $6.92 billion in July, helping merchandise exports reach a record $44.24 billion, up 19.6%. In the first four months of fiscal year 2027 (FY27), petroleum-product exports rose 42% year-on-year, compared with a 15% decline in the same period last year. Excluding petroleum, export growth stood at 13.6% in July.

The shift has come as disruptions to supplies from Russia and West Asia have altered fuel trade flows, with Indian refiners supplying more diesel to overseas markets. Crude oil prices have again moved towards $100 a barrel as the West Asia conflict continues to disrupt energy markets, raising the risk that a higher import bill could offset some of the gains from exports.

The August data will therefore need to be read beyond the headline export number. Product-level figures will show whether gains are broad-based or remain concentrated in a few sectors, while the import basket will indicate how much additional pressure is coming from oil, gold and other major commodities. The data will also offer an early indication of whether India’s external position is becoming more vulnerable to the latest oil shock even as exporters report stronger orders.

Three major central banks will announce their interest rates decisions next week, with the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan facing different inflation and growth pressures.

Since January 2025, the Fed has cut its policy rate by 75 basis points to 3.75%, while the UK has lowered interest rate by 100 basis points to 3.75%. Japan has moved in the opposite direction, raising its rate by 50 basis points to 1%.

The Fed meets on 15-16 September, with higher oil prices and inflation still above target, at 3.4% in August, complicating the case for further easing. Some economists now expect a rate increase before the end of 2026. The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its rate to 1.25% on 18 September.

For India, the key implication is the widening gap between domestic and global rate settings. Higher US and Japanese rates could strengthen their currencies and reduce foreign investor demand for Indian bonds and equities, while putting further pressure on the rupee.