Stock market outlook today, 12 Oct: Sensex, Nifty prediction

Stock market prediction for Monday, 12 October, 2026: The Indian stock market is likely to open in a positive note. (AI image for representational purposes only)(AI generated image)AI Quick ReadStock market prediction for Monday, 12 October, 2026: The Indian stock market is likely to open in a positive note, as GIFT Nifty signalled higher opening on 12 October 2026.

Meanwhile, Asian markets opened mixed on Monday, while US stock futures posted a winning week ahead of earnings and inflation data.

“Indian equities are likely to remain cautious on Monday as investors look for follow-through buying after Friday’s sharp rebound to determine whether the recovery has sufficient momentum to extend beyond a short-term relief rally. The IT-led advance has improved near-term sentiment, but sustained buying will be crucial to establishing a firmer market direction. Persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows remain a significant overhang, with overseas investors extending their selling streak to 11 consecutive sessions through Friday,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

Indian equity markets broke an eight-week losing streak, ending the week with modest gains as softer crude oil prices and positive corporate updates helped drive a recovery towards the end of the week. However, volatility remained high after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its policy stance towards calibrated tightening.

The BSE Sensex rose 0.78% over the week to close at 72,472.33, while the NSE Nifty gained 0.44% to settle at 22,520.45.

On Friday, benchmark indices rebounded after two consecutive sessions of steep losses, supported by strong buying in Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and other IT stocks, along with easing crude oil prices. The Sensex surged 879.09 points, or 1.23%, to end at 72,472.33. During the session, it climbed as much as 1,075.96 points, or 1.50%, to hit 72,669.20. The Nifty advanced 288.65 points, or 1.30%, to close at 22,520.45.

“The end of the eight-week losing streak is encouraging, but the modest weekly advance does not yet signal a broad-based recovery. Sharp reversals following the RBI’s policy announcement highlight the market’s vulnerability to macroeconomic surprises. The divergence between resilient domestic growth and subdued investor sentiment remains central to the current market setup. A sustained improvement in market breadth, stabilisation in foreign flows and moderation in crude oil prices would provide stronger evidence of a trend reversal,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking.

Gift Nifty was trading around the 22,649 level, up nearly 47 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.

The BSE Sensex closed at 72,472.33, gaining 879.09 points (+1.23%). The index opened at 71,776.67, touched an intraday high of 72,669.20 and a low of 71,739.49. Following the recent decline, the benchmark staged a strong recovery and sustained its upward momentum through the session, reflecting renewed buying interest and short-covering activity.

On the Sensex outlook, Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, “Looking ahead, the Sensex has shown encouraging signs of recovery, but the broader structure remains sideways until a decisive breakout emerges. Holding above 71,700–72,000 could support further upward movement towards 72,800–73,100, while rejection near resistance may lead to renewed consolidation. The improving RSI and strong daily close indicate that buying interest is returning, although the weekly Doji signals that confirmation is still needed. Traders should monitor the 73,000 zone closely, as a sustained move above it could strengthen bullish momentum, whereas a fall below 71,700 may weaken the recovery.”

On the Nifty 50 outlook, Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, that the index is attempting to stabilize after an extended corrective phase, but the formation of a Doji candle signals indecision rather than a confirmed reversal.

“On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 22,800 and 23,100. A sustained move above this zone could strengthen the recovery and improve near-term sentiment. On the downside, support is seen in the 22,000–22,180 zone, which remains crucial following the recent breach of the April low. A decisive breakdown below this support region could renew selling pressure. Considering the current setup, traders should remain selective and monitor whether the recent recovery develops into sustained buying momentum,” Tailor said.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday as investors turned their attention to the coming week, when the third-quarter earnings season is set to begin and key inflation data is due. The data could offer fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy move.

All three major US stock indices ended the session in positive territory and posted weekly gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 423.31 points, or 0.83%, to close at 51,654.95.