India’s 7.8% Q1 GDP growth ‘above our expectations’, says IMF amid energy price shock

IMF hails India’s 7.8% Q1 GDP growth amid energy price shockAI Quick ReadIndia’s economy has demonstrated resilience despite the energy price shock, with real GDP growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of FY27 exceeding expectations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

The IMF also welcomed changes to India’s GDP estimation system amid ongoing concerns over the integrity and transparency of economic data.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said India’s real GDP growth during the April-June quarter was higher than both the expectations of IMF staff and the consensus estimates of other observers.

“India's real GDP in the second quarter grew by 7.8 per cent. That was above our staff's expectations and also the consensus among other observers. This upward surprise was driven by stronger-than-expected activity in the services sector and in exports,” Kozack stated during a press briefing on Thursday.

“The outturn also underscores the resilience of the Indian economy despite the energy price shock. It also means that India does remain a key growth engine for the world,” she added.

Kozack also shared her response on India's latest GDP figures and whether there was scope for greater transparency in the country's economic data.

Addressing the concerns, the IMF spokesperson pointed to changes incorporated in the latest GDP release, including a new index of industrial production and a new producer price index series.

“I can say that the latest GDP release, the one that we just talked about for Q2, it incorporated both a new index of industrial production. It also included a new producer price index series, and those two new series should help improve India's GDP estimates,” Kozack said.

She said the IMF welcomed India's efforts to modernise its macroeconomic statistics, while encouraging authorities to continue strengthening the country's statistical framework and data quality.

“And we welcome these important steps that India is taking to modernise its macroeconomic statistics. And of course, we encourage the authorities to continue to further strengthen the statistical framework and data quality along the lines that they're progressing,” she said.

The IMF's response comes against the backdrop of questions raised over the latest GDP numbers. Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg had questioned the reported 7.8% GDP growth in the April-June quarter, arguing that the previous year's current GDP had been revised from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore.

Garg had mentioned that without the revision, growth at current prices would have been around 2.6%, adding to the debate over India's GDP calculations.

According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India’s real GDP expanded 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of FY27, covering April-June. Real GDP stood at an estimated ₹81.36 lakh crore during the quarter, compared with ₹75.46 lakh crore in the corresponding period of FY26.

The Q1 FY27 growth rate also surpassed the 7% expansion earlier projected by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The IMF’s assessment comes amid scrutiny of India’s strong economic performance alongside concerns over the methodology and revisions used in calculating GDP estimates.